As the regime in Kiev sends tanks and militia in to clear the remnants of the Maidan; as the Maidan pleads that their government is trying to destroy them and as the head of NATO goes to Kiev to offer support to a regime which is shelling the cities of Lugansk and Donetsk with Grad rockets, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) have just issued the results of their “investigation” into the downing of MH17.
This is the official statement that has just issued on the SBU website claiming MH17 was downed by mistake – rebels had intended to down an Aeroflot flight from Moscow in order to justify an invasion, but there had been a mix-up of place names:
During the investigation of Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 downing the law enforcement and intelligence bodies established that terrorists and militants have cynically planned the terrorist attack at Aeroflot civil aircraft, AFL-2074 Moscow-Larnaca, which was flying over the territory of Ukraine at that moment. Hereof informed the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Mr. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko during the briefing today.
He underlined – the crime was planned as a ground for bringing of Russian troops into Ukraine, that is – CASUS BELLI for the Russian military invasion.
According to the official Ukrainian data, June 17, 2014, at the mentioned time two regular international flights were operating over the territory of Ukraine following the filed requests for aircraft clearance – MAS17 plane of the Malaysia Airlines and AFL-2074 one of Aeroflot.
The routes of the mentioned international flights were approaching the sky over Donetsk. At 16:09 in the area of Novomykolaivka town the routes of the mentioned flights crossed. It is worth noting that the flight specifications of the aircrafts were almost identical – the Malaysian aircraft flew at a height of 10,100 m at a speed 909 km/h, while the Russian one – at a height of 10,600 m at a speed 768 km/h.
At 16:20 from the area of ‘Pervomaiske’ village, north-east from Donetsk, near the town of Torez, terrorists shot down the Malaysian jet, which then crashed near Grabove, Donetsk region.
According to the intercepted and published data about the ‘Buk” missile system, the terrorists had received an order to place the system near ‘Pervomaiskoe’ village, V. Nalyvaichenko mentioned. The namesake village is located about 20 km to the north-east from Donetsk.
The terrorists (most of them are not locals, but the Russian mercenaries) misrecognized the namesake villages and moved the other way, the SSU Head said. The odd route of the ‘Buk’ missile system on the territory of Ukraine proves that fact. The system crossed the Russia-Ukraine border in Luhansk region, then was deployed westward to Donetsk and moved back to the border between Donetsk and Luhansk regions afterwards.
By setting up the ‘Buk’ missile system in ‘Pervomaiske’ village located to the west from Donetsk and taking into consideration the military specifications of the weapon, the terrorists could have shot down the Russian civilian jetliner with its further crashing on the Ukrainian territory controlled by the ATO forces.
In that case Russia would receive an opportunity to accuse the Ukrainian authorities of downing the Russian plane, assaulting the Russian citizens and would use this irresistible proof for its invasion into Ukraine.
Russian side would need a compelling argument for such a step, for example accusation of the Ukrainian government in mass murder of the Russian citizens.
“A peculiar cynicism appears in the fact that the terrorist act was planned just against the peaceful, innocent Russian citizens, who were flying with their children on vacation”, – V. Nalyvaichenko, stressed.
Intelligence data proved that on July 18 the militants have already waited for the introduction of Russian Armed forces into the territory of Ukraine. The Russian side had been giving grounding for such developments for the several previous days. The Russian Mass Media had massively published information about the alleged shelling of the RF territory from the Ukrainian side.
[End of quote]
When it comes to assessing the SBU version of events here are a couple of initial observations.
1) The person writing this scenario appears to be confused, writing in one sentence “At 16:20 from the area of ‘Pervomaiske’ village, north-east from Donetsk, near the town of Torez, terrorists shot down the Malaysian jet, which then crashed near Grabove, Donetsk region.”
Torez is east of Donetsk.
2) The two villages referred to are Pervomais’kyi and Pervomais’ke – they are spelt differently:
Pervomais’kyi / ПЕРВОМАЙСЬКИЙ is 86km due east of Donetsk, just south of Snizhne.
Pervomais’ke / Первомайське is 20km north of Donetsk on the M04
3) In the “intercepted and published data” mentioned the instructions are to meet by the Motel near Hornostaevka which is at the beginning of the H21 (ie on the way to Pervomais’kyi).
(2:58 on this audio tape published by the SBU):
4) The only mention of “Pervomaiskoe” on the tape is in a conversation between “Khmuryi” and an “unknown” militant in which he is told “You come there, there is Pervomiskoe nearby, look at the map.” (at 3:29).
5) In the alleged conversation between (at 2.35) “Kumuryi” says to “Buryat”: “And now have you brought it on a vehicle? Don’t put in anywhere… I’ll tell now where it should go, it will go together with “Vostok” tanks.” and there the audio clip ends. So the SBU needs to at least provide the whole of this conversation.
6) The fact an Aeroflot plane was within range of a village sounding similar North West of Donetsk, and that the two plane’s flight paths crossed at some stage is extremely weak evidence on which to build a conspiracy theory.
7) Why would Pervomais’ke be chosen for a false flag attack when it is well within rebel territory?
8) How credible is it that anyone would commit a false flag attack of this scale, of such incredible importance, using operatives who were so incompetent and plans which were so unclear that the operatives managed to base themselves over 100km away from where they were supposed to be and shoot down the wrong plane?
9) That this conspiracy theory should be presented as fact, without any further supporting evidence, defies belief.
Why is this theory, with so little evidence, being presented as fact?
1) There may be some major problems with the “accidental rebel shoot-down” theory.
2) The Ukrainians are keen to present the rebels as the evil culprit and this theory does that.
3) It seems highly likely that Andriy Parubiy, the previous head of the Ukrainian Security Serices, resigned the day of this release as he objected to its publication.
4) There may be a psychological process going on here, such as projection.
The theory and its presentation without any real supporting evidence certainly seems to reflect a high degree of paranoia or simply delusion, and it is very worrying that a medium-sized country can fall into the hands of people with this kind of mentality.
It is even more worrying that the political leaders of Europe are turning a blind eye to the insane and hysterical Russophobia which has infected Ukraine and threatens to engulf the continent.
(updated 8/8/2014. 9/8/2014)