In this post I will try to summarise the main facts about the MH17 investigation to date, for the benefit of people who don’t want to wade through pages of evidence, much of which is incomplete and complicated.
1. The evidence suggests MH17 was downed by a BUK surface to air missile.
2. The missile launch site isn’t certain but there is a good chance it is south of Shizhne.
3) The BUK could have been launched by pro-Russian or pro-Kiev forces.
4) The most likely scenarios are a mistake by the rebels or a false flag operation by a group of pro-Kiev operatives.
5) The Ukrainian Security Service claim that the downing was a false flag operation to give Russia a reason to go to war is not credible.
6) We know one BUK on a trailer travelled from Donetsk to Snizhne on the day of the downing, but it wasn’t necessarily this BUK which downed MH17. The Ukrainian Interior Minister published footage of a very similar trailer with a BUK with missile missing, which he claimed was filmed in Krasnodon, near the RUssian border. In fact it was filmed in Lugansk, in what it appears was an area held by pro-Kiev forces.
7) Even if it was this BUK, it is not certain this BUK was controlled by the rebels or by Ukrainian forces.
8) It is certain that the Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) have repeatedly published false information to implicate Russia in the downing.
9) The SBU intercepts show the rebels communications have been severely compromised so rebel operations are subject to manipulation (giving false orders, infiltration of agents etc), which is going to make ascertaining responsibility for firing the missile very difficult.
10) Regarding Russia’s alleged participation in providing the BUK, providing the crew or allowing the BUK to travel to Russia after the downing, no concrete evidence of this has been provided by any party.
11) The Ukrainian authorities should have closed their air space to civilian air traffic on the 14th (when they say they intercepted a rebel claim to have a BUK) or on the 15th at latest when they closed down the airspace for military aircraft (other than a bombing raid on Snizhne).
12) Western political leaders bear a heavy burden of responsibility for allowing the Ukrainians to bomb civilians in the east of Ukraine with impunity.
(Update 7/8/2014 with information based on uamaps.com)